The Senate will continue to have a large and diverse crossbench for the foreseeable future, shows new research by The Australia Institute.

Analysis by The Australia Institute of its regular Senate voting preference polling shows that the next government will have to negotiate with crossbenchers that are not their natural allies.

“Minor parties will have a major influence on the Senate after the next election – and the one after it” says Executive Director of The Australia Institute, Ben Oquist. 

“The polling suggests that if the Coalition wins government, they will have to negotiate with the Greens or a variety of crossbenchers. A Labor government would have to negotiate with the Greens and other crossbenchers”. 

Report author Bill Browne added: “Those predicting the demise of the Greens or One Nation are getting ahead of themselves – they may lose seats at the next election, but either party – or both – could increase their representation at the election after that”.

The Australia Institute’s report is the first in a planned quarterly series of Senate projections, each using a model developed to simulate election outcomes. Probabilities are calculated based on polling, historical performance, likely preference flows and qualitative analysis. The Institute then runs 1,000 election simulations to determine the range of likely results.